Nine-point judgment on the development situation of cultural tourism in the second half of the year

1. The start of inter-provincial tourism. Without borders in domestic tourism, it is foreseeable that inter-provincial tourism should start soon. Because of the highest staff turnover in the country-two meetings

1. Inter-provincial tourism starts, and domestic tourism has no boundaries

It is foreseeable that the inter-provincial tour should start soon.

Because the highest level of personnel movement in the country-the two sessions were held smoothly, and no epidemic events occurred, which verifies the current cross-provincial exchanges at the highest level, and it is controllable and safe with adequate protective measures.

In addition, so far, except for some high-risk areas, most areas of the country have been safe for tens of days, and even areas that have been safe for hundreds of days. Strictly control key areas, and the time has come to release most of the country.

In addition, the nationwide unified health green code, personnel movement trajectory tracking, and big data personnel movement management...These technologies can locate people's travel trajectories at any time. Once there is an epidemic, they can also find and isolate people in close contact at any time. It has been tested in the practice of epidemic prevention in the past two months. In terms of technical means and management and control measures, the liberalization of personnel movement in China can also accurately control and prevent epidemic.

Finally, the current cross-provincial business travel is no longer a problem, and individual travel across provinces is not a problem. The proportion of team travel across provinces is not too large. The announcement of cross-provincial travel is more a statement of confidence. The risk of epidemic prevention did not increase much. On the contrary, because it is a group tour, the itinerary is restricted, which is more controllable than the flow of ordinary personal travel.

Therefore, it is foreseeable that cross-provincial tourism as a measure to boost confidence without increasing too much risk of epidemic prevention should be launched in the near future and will be implemented as an important means of boosting consumption.

2. In the second half of the year, the cultural tourism will recover to 60-80% in 2019

Some days ago, indoor cultural tourism activities have been lifted, including the immediate start of inter-provincial tourism. Cultural tourism in domestic tourism in the second half of the year will usher in a relatively normal development environment. Through the practice during the "May Day" in the early stage, it can be found that the tourism during the "May Day" is about 40% of that in 2019. After the "May Day", the ban is further lifted. From what I have learned, high-quality scenic spots, the current It has been able to recover to about 60% of the same period in 2019, and very good scenic spots (homestays) have even recovered to the past 80% on weekends and holidays.

If all kinds of restrictions (except entry and exit) are lifted in the second half of the year, the pace of recovery of domestic cultural brigades will continue to move forward, so the cultural brigades will continue to return to blood on the existing basis. However, subject to the slowdown in domestic economic growth, the decline in national disposable income, and the large growth of tourism is impossible, so overall, if optimistic, it can be restored to about 80% in 2019 in the second half of the year (considering entry and exit tourism Basically stagnation), if the economy continues to be weak, it may be about 60% of last year.

Therefore, the overall tourism situation in the second half of the year will definitely be better, but it is unlikely to return to the level of the same period last year, or to dream of surpassing the same period last year (the growth of individual companies against the trend does not represent the overall trend). However, the overall trend does not represent individual cases of enterprises that have emerged because of local travel and intra-provincial travel.

3. The international tourism sector is still not optimistic

The international tourism sector in the second half of the year is still not optimistic. Although the vaccine is now successfully developed, the mass production of the vaccine is already at the end of the year. If the vaccine is to be popularized in the world, it will be difficult to achieve in 1-2 years, so even if the vaccine can be developed and produced normally Not every country has the ability to use it, so at least until the end of this year, as long as the Chinese people across the country are not fully vaccinated, international tourism will be more cautious.

Foreign countries may gradually loosen the restrictions on international tourism from August to September, but our country should also restrict the restrictions. Return isolation is a necessary process, and the mobility will still be poor. Therefore, the start of the international tourism sector will still be relatively late and difficult.

4. The division of cultural tourism industry

2020 is bound to be a year for the cultural and tourism industry. In the past, it was an era dominated by resources, capital, relationships, and channels. In the context of the ever-expanding tourism market, most tourism speculators can earn a lot of money.

However, with the epidemic in 2020 superimposed by the economic slowdown, the future reforms will go to deep water areas, and the industrial transformation will be difficult to adjust. The cultural tourism industry is likely to be transferred from the incremental market to the stock market, and it can be determined that the cultural tourism market in 2020 It is a shrinking market.

2020 is a year of division. The past is an era of speculation, and the future is an era of professionalism.

The past is an era of speculation, and the future is an era of professionalism. There are two types of tourism enterprises that can survive in the future, one is a professional tourism operation enterprise, and the other is a professional business operation enterprise.

The first type is a professional tourism operation enterprise that attaches great importance to operations and quality, works slowly and carefully, and makes tourism professional and ultimate. Tourism is all they have to do, and then do tourism and pursue the derivative and peripheral benefits of tourism. In the age of mud and sand, they will become more prominent, and the grammar is recognized by tourists. Under the Matthew effect, it will become better and better. This type of enterprise will produce many high-quality, classic tourism projects or cases, will be deeply cultivated and have attitudes, and will be the pillar of the future tourism industry.

The other is an excellent business operation company. They are not necessarily very good travel companies, but they are very good at business operation companies. They can accurately judge project entry and exit, can accurately control costs, and can strictly implement Commercial operations. Their operation projects are carried out in accordance with the laws of commercial operations. The time is generally not too long, and they will advance and retreat very accurately. Tourism is just a form of their commercial format. They are not limited to the success or failure of a tourism project, but they will always Overall commercial profitability. They may not produce particularly good tourism projects, but they will make money and survive. Slowly they will also pursue some classic projects.

2020 is a year of cultural and tourism divisions. In the age of speculation in the past, it does not matter if you are not professional, you can make money by luck. But if you are not professional in the future, the money you earned in the past will lose your strength in the tourism industry.

Fifth, protecting the enterprise is to ensure employment, and in the second half of the year, it will be the theme

At present, "six stable" and "six guarantees" are still on direct job security. The informal economy, including the land-sharing economy, has been placed on a strategic framework. However, in the long run, the formal economy in the form of enterprises can be powerful Regulate social security and stabilize the employment status of employees. At the same time, protecting the enterprise can also enable the enterprise to have a continuous hematopoietic function, which is likely to grow and develop and provide more standardized employment opportunities.

Therefore, in the second half of the year, the “six stable” and “six guarantees” of stable employment and employment are likely to be implemented in the insurance companies, and the more companies that can increase employment, the more likely they will become the focus of policy. As far as tourism companies are concerned, tourism companies are major employers. It is foreseeable that in the second half of the year, the government will return to the theme of protecting tourism companies. For tourism companies that are now struggling, there may be some opportunities.

6. National advancement and national retreat are still the mainstream, the big year for big fish to eat fish

It is foreseeable that private tourism enterprises will still have a hard time in the second half of the year because of insufficient blood supply. Even a proactive company such as Chimelong needs Tracy McGrady to survive, and cultural and travel giants like Xinhualian need to ask the bigwigs to survive. Under the influence of the epidemic, private enterprises may need to be acquired or injected with capital, especially from state-owned capital, because of their insufficient blood supply capacity. Therefore, the foreseeable second half of the year is an important period for the country to advance and retreat.

Another phenomenon is the phenomenon of big fish eating medium fish. In the past, large enterprises would pay a high premium for eating medium tourism enterprises. Now they are very cheap, or even take the initiative to sell their lives. In the past, big fish can only eat small. Fish, now a big fish eating fish, there will be many high-quality tourism companies eaten by big companies, among them there may be some cross-border giants such as Ali, byte beat, Meituan, Didi...

7. Government projects are opportunities, To G should pay attention to the layout

In the case of a certain suppression of household consumption, government investment is an important means to stimulate the economy. Government projects have become a key area in the second half of the year. To C-end and To B-end tourism companies must leave a thoughtful focus on the government. Project, because this is an important area.

Take the cultural tourism creative industry as an example. In the past, To B or To C were very popular and could support themselves, but in the second half of the year, they may have to think about whether they can meet the government’s needs. For example, the government needs to do regional IP, and the government has to do "XX "Gifts" and the like, and there will be more such opportunities.

This is especially true for large-scale cultural and tourism enterprises. Docking government needs, government projects, obtaining government subsidies, and obtaining new opportunities are all things that need attention in the second half of this year.

Of course, you must carefully screen for cooperation with the government or for government projects. The government is a collective term. In fact, there are different governments of different sizes. There are various governments in various regions. There are rules-based and non-rules-based. From there, it is necessary for the bad ones to stay away.

8. Local opportunities or market segment opportunities are highlighted and can be properly paid attention to

Even if the entire tourism market may only be 60% to 80% in 2019, some opportunities still exist. The areas newly radiated by the high-speed rail in the metropolitan area, Hainan and the coast of Guangdong and Guangxi...These opportunities are still in these areas, and the border areas are now at risk of epidemic. But the future opportunities are still there.

Taking Hainan as an example, after international tourism is banned, the demand for high-end tourism will turn to areas that can currently provide such products without the risk of epidemic. Hainan bears the brunt, and its tax exemption policy has landed. Hainan is very worthwhile this year. look forward to.

Such local opportunities always exist, and cultural tourism companies need proper attention.

The other is the new themes and new market segments brought by the consumption of the new generation of cultural travel, which needs attention. Facts have proved that during the epidemic, they are the most courageous and the most powerful consumer group, so it is always right to follow up with their products.

There is also a new consumption trend, for example, there is a simultaneous consumption upgrade and consumption downgrade trend. With consumption upgrading, the iteration of ideas may be better than the iteration of prices. Degraded consumption is an increase in cost-effectiveness and an increase in standardization. There are opportunities in both areas, and related cultural tourism companies can pay more attention.

9. The development of sports-style cultural tourism will still be full of noise, and excellent cultural tourism enterprises must have a basic concentration

One final point of discussion is that government behaviors that are dominated by assessments will still promote the development of "sports-style cultural brigades", such as the toilet revolution in the past and the current market economy. These sports-style government behaviors must not be in the second half of the year. Will be less, what form? It's hard to guess if we break our brain circuits, but there will definitely be something that is noisy.

But as an excellent cultural tourism enterprise, one must have basic judgment and the other must have basic determination. The basic judgment is that there are opportunities in the development of this sports-style cultural tourism, and maybe you can participate; or there is no harm in doing it, you must participate, such as the toilet revolution. If the scenic spot is not done, it will be revolutionized.

The other is the basic concentration, that is, high-quality content and excellent operation are always the foundation of the tourism enterprise. The sports tourism must be treated rationally, not to be blinded, or to focus on the core competitiveness of their own enterprises. on.